The ATHENS STOCK EXCHANGE Tense

Consolidated Financial Highlights

May 30, 2018 at 06:39 PM CEST THIS IS AN ANNOUNCEMENT FOR THE MSCI GLOBAL STANDARD INDEXES AMENDMENT TO THE MAY 2018 INDEX REVIEW FOLLOWING SUSPENSIONS OF SECURITIES The following securities of the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes with May 2018 Semi-Annual Index Review (SAIR) related changes  were suspended from trading on May 30, 2018.  The list may also include securities for which the suspension treatment was already announced by MSCI on a previous day due to market holidays. -------------- Country    | Name -------------- GR         | FF GROUP -------------- MSCI will apply its policy regarding trading suspensions for individual securities during Index Reviews for securities included in this list.  Regardless of whether these securities resume trading before June 01, 2018 or not, MSCI will still apply this suspension treatment. According to Appendix VIII of the MSCI Global In...

Changes in the  MSCI indices  will become effective as of the close of the market today. We remind that MSCI has decided the following changes in its semi-annual index review :  a) Folli Follie Group is deleted from the MSCI Greece Standard index and included in the MSCI Global Small Cap Index, b) GEK Terna is added in the MSCI Global Small Cap Index and c) Hellenic Petroleum is deleted from the MSCI Global Small Cap Index. That said, MSCI Greece index will have the following 8 constituents: 1) Alpha Bank, 2) OTE, 3) OPAP, 4) Eurobank, 5) NBG, 6) Jumbo, 7) Titan and 8) Piraeus Bank.  

The heads of IMF, ECB, ESM, EC’s Vice President and the MoFs of Germany, France and Italy will meet this coming Saturday in Canada at the sidelines of G7, aiming to reach an agreement over Greece’s  debt   restructuring . An agreement could allow the IMF to participate at Greece’s program as its participation is subject to a clear DSA, ie subject to Greece’s debt being sustainable as per its own calcs and rules.

A European official said that Greece would have to complete all  prior actions  by 14 June (until now only 10 of the total 88 prior actions have been implemented), so that the 21 June Eurogroup would be able to approve loan disbursements and make decisions on debt relief measures and post bailout monitoring mechanism. According to government’s plan, a multi-bill will be tabled in Parliament by 5 June and voted by 9 June, addressing the majority of actions, while for the remainder there will be ministerial decisions. The same official said that the reduction of the tax-free threshold in 2019 instead of scheduled 2020 was now “completely off the table”.

Folli Follie shares suspended. Creditors demand additional collateral.

Sarantis  will trade ex-dividend of EUR 0.28 per share as of today. The dividend is subject to a 15% withholding tax, thus shareholders will receive a net amount of EUR 0.238/share, implying a net dividend yield of 1.7% based on yesterday’s closing price. The payment of the dividend to beneficiaries will commence on June 1st. Sarantis  announced it has completed its share buyback program, under which it could purchase up to 10% of its share capital. During the program Sarantis acquired 1.37m shares, i.e. 3.9% of its share capital, at an average price of EUR 9.17 per share and a total value of EUR 12.5m.

Titan Cement  is scheduled to announce its  1Q18 results  today, followed by a conference call at 18:00 local time (16:00 UK time). We forecast group turnover of EUR 332m (-8.4% YoY), EBITDA of EUR 42.5m (-17% YoY) and net losses of EUR 1.0m compared to net losses of EUR 3.9m in 1Q17.

PPC’s BoD  approved yesterday the divestment procedure of the  lignite-fired power plants  that are up for sale via an international tender. Specifically the 2 operating units of Megalopolis  with a total capacity of 500 MW and the Melitis unit with a nominal capacity of 290 MW together with a license for a new 450 MW plant will be transferred to two separate holdings. Reportedly (Naftemporki), the timetable of the sales procedure is the following: a)  31  May : Announcement  of invitation  for expression of interest, b)  21 June : Submission of non-binding offers, c)  3 July : Selection of investors qualified for the next phase, d)  1 October : Submission of binding offers, e)  17 October : Announcement of the preferred bidder. Finally, according to Kathimerini, the terms of the invitation for expression of interest does not provide for any conditions for participating in the tender, such as previous activity in production an...

Support for debt relief measures has increased in the past few months. Debt relief measures are not new; they were initially promised by the Eurogroup several years ago (but never fully materialised), while the Tsipras government had been asking for them since the beginning of its mandate, supported by the IMF. However, there has recently been a renewed impulse coming from various parts of the euro area, now that the programme is ending positively. Even Germany, which has historically been more focused on Greek reforms rather than debt relief measures, has recently been more inclined towards the idea. Nevertheless, expectations over the magnitude of debt relief measures vary widely. France, the EC and the IMF are pushing for stronger debt relief measures, as soon as possible. This scenario would reduce uncertainty on Greece’s repayment capacity and open up a virtuous circle; whereby the country could regain its IG status and be part of QE or ECB balance sheet re-investment...

Euro money market statistics: second maintenance period 2018 Twitter   facebook   linkedin   googleplus   email 23 May 2018 Daily average borrowing turnover in the unsecured segment increased from €112 billion in the first maintenance period to €114 billion in the second maintenance period of 2018 Weighted average overnight rate on borrowing transactions decreased from -0.41% to -0.42% for the wholesale sector and remained unchanged at -0.44% for the interbank sector Daily average nominal borrowing amount in the unsecured segment for the wholesale and interbank sectors, by maintenance period (EUR billions) Weighted average rate for wholesale sector borrowing in the unsecured segment by tenor and maintenance period (Percentage) In the latest maintenance period, which started on 14 March 2018 and ended on 2 May 2018, the borrowing turnover in the unsecured segment averaged €114 billion per day, compared to €112 billion in the previous per...

A  European official  told the newspaper that there has been some convergence in views about  Greek debt relief measures  between the IMF and Germany, but there is no agreement yet. The main difference is that Germany wishes any debt-easing measures to be approved only after certain terms and conditions have been met, while the IMF insists that debt relief should be automatic and free from political pressures. On a positive note, it appears that the two sides have found a compromise about the extension of maturities to 8 years.

Equity prices rise on Tuesday on the  Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) , with the basic share price index up 2.00 percent  at 800.18 points at 16.45 and turnover at 56.5 million euros.

By Nikos Chrysoloras and Viktoria Dendrinou (Bloomberg) -- Euro-area governments still seeking activation of International Monetary Fund’s credit line for Greece, as IMF participation is important for the credibility of the bailout program, an EU official tells reporters in Brussels. Timelines are running short, “we ’re in the crucial days” for IMF’s decision the official says, asking not to be named in line with policy; the decision is expected on Thursday, after the meeting of euro area finance ministers in Brussels, a second official says, also on condition of anonymity IMF still seeking clarity on Greek debt relief, first official says: Eurogroup discussion on Greek debt relief this week will be more extensive than it was in the last meeting of euro-area finance ministers last month, but the final package of measures will be agreed in June It’s really important that Greece completes all the prior actions for the conclusion of the last bailout review by June, so...

The Commission services are currently preparing for the implementation in EU law of the revisions to the credit risk, operational risk and credit valuation adjustment risk frameworks, as well as the implementation of the new output floor, which were agreed1 by the Group of Governors and Heads of Supervision in December of last year (the socalled finalisation of the Basel III reforms2). The Commission services are also closely following the ongoing work3 ofthe Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) on the market risk framework (expected to be concluded by the end of 2018) since it may lead to revisions to that framework which would then need to be implemented in EU law as well. As part of the implementation process, the Commission services are seeking technical advice from the European Banking Authority (EBA) on the potential impact of the abovementioned revisions, including any potential revisions to the market risk framework, on the EU banking sector and the wider EU economy, ...

MOH  is scheduled to report its  1Q18 results  tomorrow after the close of the market. Excluding inventory effect and one-offs, we expect “clean” EBITDA of EUR 104m (-38% YoY) and “clean” net income of EUR 46.5m (-48% YoY). Assuming inventory losses of EUR 8m compared to zero inventory in 1Q17, we estimate reported EBITDA of EUR 96m (-43% YoY) and reported net income of EUR 41m (-54% YoY). A conference call with management will be held tomorrow at 15:15 UK time.

MIG  announced that it received a binding offer from “Hellenic Healthcare S.A R.L.” (controlled by CVC Capital Partners) for the sale of its participation in  Hygeia  (70.38% or for c. 215.2 shares) at EUR 0.92/share. The consideration thus amounts to c. EUR 198m, valuating the firm at EUR 281.3m. The offer price represents a 9.4% premium over Friday’s closing price and a 4.5% over yesterday’s price.  MIG said also that its ExCo and BoD unanimously considered the above offer as ‘satisfactory’, adding that they expect the agreement to conclude by June 30, subject to shareholders approval.

According to BoG provisional data, Greece’s  current account balance  in January-March 2018 showed a deficit of EUR 2,835m compared to a deficit of EUR 2,782m in the same period last year. In March, the current account balance showed a deficit of EUR 956m compared to a deficit of EUR 1,412m in the same month last year.

This chart by Goldman shows how things have improved in Greece 's banking sector since the last stress test in 2015

Ellaktor  plans to launch a tender for the sale of its 64.5% stake in renewables arm  Eltech Anemos .  Anemos reported for 2017 group turnover of EUR 45.2m (+10% YoY), EBITDA of  EUR 33.4m (+7% YoY), and net income of EUR 3.1m from EUR 4.6m in 2016. Group net debt stood at EUR 172m from EUR 124m one year ago as a result of the ongoing investment program. The total installed capacity at the end of 2017 was 260 MW, while 6 wind parks with a total capacity of 187 MW are in implementation stage. Anemos is a listed company with a current market cap of approximately EUR 150m.    

Fashion retailer BSB is planning to issue a  corporate bond  targeting to raise up to EUR 25m for the refinancing of existing debt and organic expansion in Greece and foreign markets. Same source also mentions that TEMES (the operator of Costa Navarino resort and co-owner of Hilton Athens) is considering an  IPO  on ATHEX.

ATHEX Group (EXAE)  will release its 1Q18 results today, post market close. We forecast revenues of EUR 7.1m (+28% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 2.7m (vs. EUR 1.3m in 1Q17) and net profits of EUR 1.4m (vs. EUR 0.4m in 1Q17). The company will hold a conference call tomorrow at 16:00 Athens time (14:00 UK time).

The positive outlook of the US (despite a mediocre start to the year due to adverse weather) is still counterbalanced by weak market conditions in Egypt and Greece for which we expect now an even slower pace of recovery. On the other hand, group’s strong market position in the US and competitive cost structure in all regions should translate to solid FCF generation (average 5-year FCF yield of 8%), allowing management to combine deleveraging, satisfactory dividend and growth capex. Overall, our revised estimates result in a target price of EUR 22.00 from EUR 22.40 previously, which at current market levels yields a “Neutral” recommendation. ü    Greece :  Continued weak residential demand and delays in the implementation of new infrastructure projects after the completion of four motorways in 2017 point to a high single-digit drop in domestic cement demand in 2018. On the other hand, cost savings (a EUR 4m staff reduction charge was taken in 4Q17) and high export ...

Greece and its creditors agreed on the next steps for completing the country’s final bailout review, a key milestone for exiting the program and striking a deal on debt relief. Government officials and representatives from the International Monetary Fund and euro-area creditor institutions completed a week of discussions in Athens on Saturday. Greek Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos said reaching a technical deal to conclude the fourth bailout review, the so-called staff level agreement, paves the way for discussion of debt relief measures. Euro-area finance ministers may begin a discussion over how to ease the country’s debt burden of about 320 billion euros ($377 billion) at a May 24 meeting. The SLA agreement also lets policy makers to proceed with designing a framework for the country’s post-program monitoring and determining what sort of strings would be attached to the debt relief. Tsakalotos said such a mechanism will be discussed at the June 21 Eurogroup meet...

My answer: yes, but with a caveat. The conventional wisdom that bonds prices go up when stocks go down only holds if there are shocks to growth. Bonds have historically suffered in inflation shocks, such as the 1969 example. Overall, history shows it is rare to see negative returns in both stocks and bonds in the same year. Of the 24 years with negative equity returns since 1929, U.S. 10-year Treasuries generated positive returns in all but three.

Greece’s representative to the IMF  Psalidopoulos said that If the IMF and Europeans agree on debt measures for Greece at next Thursday's Eurogroup, the Fund will activate its program on Greece, as initially approved in July last year. He added that as per the current agreement, the Fund sees Greece’s debt being sustainbale only until 2030, underlying that more needs to be done to make it sustainable after 2030.

Greece’s privatization agency (TAIPED) announced that the deadline for submission of expression of interest  for 50.01% of  Hellenic Petroleum  (the State will sell 20% and Paneuropean Oil 30.01%) was extended to 30 May from 18 May.

According to electricity market operator’s (LAGIE) latest report for electricity market,  PPC’s retail market share  in April fell to 82% from 82.75% in March. The three largest independent retailers (Heron 3.98%, Elpedison 3.63% and Mytilineos 3.72%) witnessed small changes in their market shares.  Recall that PPC’s market share (according to targets set by the MoU signed between Greece and foreign creditors) should fall below 62.24% by the end of 2018 and below 50% by the end of 2019, however it is likely that these targets will be revised upwards as creditors appear to accept Energy Ministry’s proposal to exclude HV and energy intensive MV customers from the market share calculation.

NBG  announced that it will release its 1Q18 results on May 31, post market close. A conference call will follow at 19:00 Athens time.

Aegean Airlines’  AGM yesterday shareholders approved among others a gross DPS distribution of EUR 0.55 per share (gross DY 6.0%). Recall that the ex-dividend date is set for May 22 nd .

Following a meeting with creditors’ main representatives  Energy Minister  Stathakis said that there was a first agreement on the pending  energy issues  of the  fourth review . Specifically, it was agreed that: a) the current RES charge on retailers will remain until 2020, though gradually reduced (as of April it is already reduced by 35% compared to last year), and afterwards it will be replaced by a new mechanism that will be mainly based on the purchase of green certificates, b) NOME auctions for electricity generated from lignite-fired power plants will be gradually phased out depending on progress on the procedure of the sale of utility’s lignite-fired power plants, c) an alternative proposal for the privatization of gas company DEPA was submitted to creditors for evaluation.

HIGH : 803.24 LOW: 786.54 CLOSE: 787.90        -1.43%

Retest 790 points 777 points RESISTANCE

APPLE Berkshire Hathaway acquired nearly 75 million Apple shares in the first quarter, as reported by its founder, Warren Buffett, when the quarterly accounts were released in early May. He now owns approximately 239.5 million shares in the apple firm according to the 13F-HR report issued to the SEC. Berkshire Hathaway thus becomes the second largest shareholder of Apple with about 5% of the capital. AT & T / TIME WARNER AT & T reaffirmed, through its CEO Randall Stephenson, that the acquisition and integration of Time Warner was the top priority of 2018. The group is awaiting the decision of the US Department of Justice for June 12. For the rest, AT & T is focusing on the continued roll-out of its Gigabit network in the United States and the strengthening of its video offering under the DirecTV brand. In addition, Stephenson highlighted the significant development potential in advertising that will come with the acquisition of Time Warner. INTERNATIONAL PAPER Inter...

In a bourse filing,  Folli Follie Group  announced that the President of the BoD Dimitrios Koutsolioutsos acquired 88,000 shares on May 15th, 2018 at a total value of  EUR 633.5k. In a separate announcement on ATHEX, the company notified that it had repurchased 5k shares at an average of EUR 8.47/share on May 11, 2018.

Creditors’ top negotiators will resume  fourth review  talks in Athens today with the aim to reach a Staff Level Agreement (SLA) by this Saturday (May 19).  Discussions today will focus on privatizations, energy issues and public administration issues.