The ATHENS STOCK EXCHANGE Tense

  It's summertime!!! Back in 3 weeks!!! Smell the sea and feel the sky.  Katelios - Kefalonia, is a small fishing village on the southeast of the island and 32 kilometres away from Argostoli. Two decades ago in the village there were only fishermen who had their cottages and huts there. Gradually it became much more popular, initially among the residents of Argostoli who chose Katelios for their short excursions because of its local 'tavernas' with the delicious seafood. Since then there has been significant tourist development, although Katelios remains a quiet and peaceful destination, ideal for nature lovers and those seeking relaxation. The village is divided into Ano Katelios where the permanent residents have their properties and Kato Katelios which is the area with most of the tourist accommodation. Despite tourism Katelios hasn’t lost its character and therefore the peaceful and tranquil atmosphere along with the beautiful green surroundings m...

Yesterday’s  Eurogroup  approved the conclusion of the  fourth   review , with the relevant disbursement of funds, further  debt relief  measures and the  post bail-out mechanism . Accordingly, 1) Greece will receive EUR 15bn as a last tranche of the current bail-out, 2) get a 10-year extension for the repayment of EFSF loans and an additional grace period of 10 years on interest payments and 3) it has committed to continue its structural reform agenda and achieve a primary surplus target of 3.5% (of GDP) until 2022 and then a 2.2% primary surplus on average, from 2023 to 2060.   Reportedly (Bloomberg),  Eurogroup head  Centeno said for the Greek debt deal “after eight long years Greece will finally be graduating from its financial assistance”. On his part,  MoF  Tsakalotos said that the government was satisfied with the Eurogroup agreement, noting that that the debt was now viable, allowing access to the markets.  I...

A) Today is the deadline for  the submission of expressions of interest for  PPC’s lignite-fired power plants . According to press reports four local industrial groups (Mytilineos, GEK TERNA, Viochalco and Kopelouzos group in partnership with Chinese Shenshua) and at least two investors from Asia are likely to participate in the first phase of the tender.  The indicative timetable of the next steps of the tender procedure is the following: a) 3 July: Selection of investors qualified for the next phase, b) 1 October: Submission of binding offers, c) 17 October: Announcement of the preferred bidder. B)  PPC  announced that Greek banks have approved the  debt refinancing agreement  for the existing loans as well as a new credit line amounting to EUR 200m. Specifically, the following were approved:  1) The refinancing of the existing syndicated bond loan currently amounting at EUR 1.2bn with a new five year loan with no securities. Annual redempti...

Vodafone-Wind consortium and TV station ‘Ant1’ are the 2 final candidates for the acquisition of a 32.8% stake in Forthnet  held by Greek banks (Piraeus, NBG, Alpha, Attica). The two investors will be called to submit their binding offers by July 31.

Today’s  Eurogroup  is expected to ratify the conclusion of the  fourth   review  of Greece’s program, present the agreement over the  debt restructuring   measures  and the  post bail-out  supervision mechanism. On the later issue, Bloomberg argues that the post-bailout era will include binding targets, compliance reviews, and even disbursements. Accordingly, reviews will be quarterly, fiscal room for the government to shape its own policies will be constrained by “continued engagement with European institutions”, the privatisation plan will have to continue and structural reforms will be safeguarded. The carrot offered for this enhanced surveillance will be annual (or semi-annual) disbursements of profits made on GGBs from the ECB and national CBs.

Piraeus   Bank  is in exclusive talks with Czech APS Holding over the possible sale of a EUR 2.2bn unsecured NPL portfolio (project Arctos). The portfolio has a gross book value of c. EUR 400m. According to previous reports, the portfolio includes c. 220k credit card and consumer loan NPLs, with 50% of these ranging from EUR 1,000 to 5,000. Recall that the bank has recently said that NPL sales should be capital accretive with this sale seen adding some 10bps to group’s CET1 ratio, possibly from a reduction of RWAs. 

The  post bailout surveillance mechanism  that will be agreed at Thursday’s Eurogroup will commit Greece to the continuation of reforms in six key areas until 2022, namely: a) fiscal with a focus on achievement of 3.5% primary surplus target, containment of state arrears and introduction of tax reforms on property,  b) social security and health sector, c) financial sector with the focus on NPLs reduction, d) labour and product markets, including the restructuring of the electricity market operation, e) privatizations, monitoring progress on TAIPED’s updated plan, f)  public administration. The document also foresees quarterly reviews by current creditors (including the IMF even if it has only an advisory role) after which they will prepare a compliance report on the basis of which there will be a decision on whether there will be a release of debt relief measures which however will be constrained to disbursements from the profits that euro-area central banks made o...

The SSM will ask from banks to set up ambitious plans for the  reduction   of  their  NPE  stock after 2019. Accordingly, banks will be asked to reduce their stock to below 20% of loans by 2021 (euro2day says to 15-17%), and possibly reach single digit rates by the end of 2022. Recall that the target for 2019 which is indeed ambitious, calls for the reduction of NPEs to EUR 64.6bn (from EUR 92.4bn - 48.5% in 1Q18) or 35.2% of total loans.  

At the forthcoming Eurogroup (June 21), parties will try to reach an agreement over Greece’s  debt restructuring measures . Accordingly, measures will not be very aggressive but will satisfy Greece’s short and medium term needs, including the extension of the repayment period of EFSF loans by less than 10 years (possibly 7 to 8 years), the partial buy-back of IMF loans (so as to lower costs) and the buy- back (at their maturity though) of old GGBs held by the ECB and national CBs. To implement the buy-back, Greece will be given extra funds of EUR 12-15bn, put in a separate account, while the last tranche will be elevated (to the tune of EUR 10-12bn), allowing the country to secure a EUR 18bn cash buffer, which will allow it to tap markets at a letter stage.

Gek Terna  announced its  1Q18 financial results : Turnover rose by 32.6% YoY to EUR 348m, EBITDA (adjusted for non-cash items) advanced by 9.8% YoY to 75.6m, while net income declined  by 60% YoY to EUR 7.1m. The construction division posted turnover of EUR 247m (+17.7% YoY) and EBITDA of EUR 18.8m (-46% YoY). The construction backlog stood at EUR 1.55bn. The renewables division (it includes Terna Energy’s renewables activities) recorded turnover of EUR 56m (+21% YoY) and EBITDA of EUR 42m (+22% YoY). Finally, the concessions division for the first time made an important contribution due to the operation of the two motorway concessions (Ionia Odos and Central Greece), showing turnover of EUR 38m and EBITDA of EUR 17.8m.  Group net debt at the end of 1Q18 stood at EUR 1,139m compared to EUR 1,084m at the end of 2017.

Terna Energy  announced its  1Q18 financial results : Turnover rose by 29% YoY to EUR 71.7m, EBITDA advanced by 29.2% YoY to EUR 45.6m, while net income increased by 23.6% YoY to EUR 11.5m. Load factor in wind shaped at  a high 35.1% from 31.5% in 1Q17. Total installed capacity currently stands at 986 MW (unchanged from previous quarter), while wind farms with a capacity of 177 MW are under construction (158 MW in US and 19MW in Greece). Group net debt at the end of 1Q18 declined to EUR 518.5m from EUR 564m at the end of 2017. In other news, TE signed yesterday its second PPP waste management project for the region of Peloponnese. The concession has duration of 28 years (including construction time of 24 months) and a budget of EUR 168m.

  Deputy   Economy   Minister  Haritsis said that the government could discuss the timing of a possible  new bond issue  after next week’s meeting of eurozone finance ministers which is expected to decide on Greece’s debt relief measures.

Ellaktor’s  second largest shareholders,  Anastatios Kallitsantsis and Dimitrios Kallitsantsis who together own about 13% of company’s shares, resigned from their positions as chairman and vice-chairman of the BoD respectively (both remaining in the BoD). With an official announcement, Kallitsantsis brothers disclosed their intention to propose at the next AGM (29 June) the replacement of group’s top management, specifically of the group CEO Leonidas Bobolas  and of the vice-chairman of the BoD Dimitrios Koutras (Koutras is also Chairman and CEO of the construction arm Aktor). Note that Bobolas and Koutras together own approximately 22% of Ellaktor, while according to company’s last presentation (May 2018) the shareholders structure is as follows: Management team 38.7%, foreign institutional investors 29.3%, Greek institutional investors 8.4%, retail 21%, and treasury 2.6%.  

Fitch  ratings upgraded  Alpha   Bank’s ,  NBG’s  and  Piraeus   Bank’s  covered bond ratings by one notch (all to ‘BB-‘ from ‘B+’) with Alpha’s and NBG’s ratings having also a ‘possitve’ outlook vs. stable for the rating on Piraeus’ covered bonds. The upgrade follows Fitch’s recent upgrade of the Sovereign and the update of certain of Fitch’s assumption on European RMBS.

Greek State raised EUR 812.5m yesterday from the issuance of  1-year T-bills . The total amount auctioned was EUR 625m, while total bids reached EUR 929m (1.49x coverage ratio vs. 3.18x  in March’s auction) for an interest rate of 1.09% (vs. 1.25% in March). PDMA is expected to accept non-competitive bids of EUR 187.5m from primary dealers today, bringing the total amount raised at EUR 1.0bn.

The  head  of the  Euro Working Group  Vijlbrief expressed confidence that at the 21 June Eurogroup  there will be a comprehensive agreement for Greece, which most likely will not include financing from the IMF, although the Fund is expected to remain somehow involved in the programme (recall that Lagarde said recently that the IMF could be engaged in multiple forms and under multiple statuses). Vijlbrief, who expressed some concern over the nonparticipation of the IMF with funds, estimated that the Greek government will still not ask for a precautionary credit line. Vijlbrief also noted that the final tranche Greece can expect after the completion of the fourth review will be in the range of EUR 11-12 bn, while the size of the cash buffer for the post-bailout period has not been decided yet. Finally, the EWG head said that Greece would have to continue to fulfill three terms after the end of the current programme in August: reforms implementation, fiscal disci...

The shares of the company  "GR. SARANTIS S.A."  (GRS204003008), are traded on the ATHEX at a final par value of €0.78 per share due to the share split  in terms of  1 new (CR) share for every 1 old (CR) share held. The start date of trading of the new 34,938,742 (CR) shares is set on June 18, 2018.  

The Athens Exchange, taking into consideration, the decision of the Hellenic Capital Market Commission for the suspension of trading of FOLLI FOLLIE S.A. and since the reasons of suspension have not been lifted, announces the deferral of the expiration of the Stock Futures on FOLLI-FOLLIE, in accordance to article 2.6.9.2 of the ATHEX Rulebook. In summary, the following actions will take place: A.        After the close of business of Wednesday 13/06/2018, two (2) days prior to the normal expiration date of the June future (which is Friday 15/06/2018), the June and September series will be renamed for technical reasons (to perform the deferral) with the addition of the X symbol in the end of their name, that is FFGRP18FΧ and FFGRP18ΙΧ respectively. B.        The “technical” expiration date of the FFGRP18F Χ  series will be set as 20/12/2019, while, for the moment, the expiration date of the FFGRP18 ΙΧ  serie...

OTE  will hold its AGM today. Shareholders will be called to approve the proposed ordinary dividend of EUR 0.35/share (before 15% dividend tax; ex-dividend date: June 28 th ) for FY17. In other news, OTE announced the purchase of 54,571 own shares on June 8, 2018. Following the aforementioned purchase, the company holds 3,366,138 own shares or 0.687% of total share capital.

Alpha   Bank  has initiated a new voluntary separation scheme for its local employees. Accordingly, the plan will be open for c. 10 days (expiring on June 22). Recall that the bank has already taken a provision for the plan in 4Q17 (of c. EUR 93m), meaning that there should be no costs associated with the departure of employees in FY18 financials.

Coca Cola HBC  announced that in its AGM, held yesterday, shareholders elected Mr. Zoran Boganovic as a new executive member of the Board. The AGM approved also a gross dividend of EUR 0.54 per share. The shares are expected to trade ex-dividend as of June 28, 2018 (payment date is scheduled for July 24 th ). Furthermore, the AGM adopted a proposal for a share buy-back of up to 7.5m (c. 2% of total) Coca-Cola HBC ordinary shares.   

After her meeting with German Chancellor Merkel in Berlin,  IMF MD  Lagarde told reporters that the Fund will remain engaged in the Greek programme one way or the other, however its role would become more clearer most likely after the 21 June Eurogroup. “The IMF can be engaged, and extremely engaged in multiple forms and under multiple statuses, using multiple tools,” Lagarde pointed. According to press reports, current negotiations between the IMF and Europeans mainly focus on maturity extensions for the loans provided in the framework of the second bailout programme (EUR 130.9bn), seeking a compromise between the 15 years asked by the IMF (the ECB appears to support the proposal) and the 5 years preferred by Germany.

ATHEX announced the changes in the composition of  ATHEX Market Indices  following the suspension of trading of the shares of Folli Follie on June 8. In particular,  Fourlis  is adding in FTSE/ATHEX Large Cap index replacing Folli Follie, while Petropoulos is added in the FTST/ATHEX Mid Cap index in replacement of Fourlis.

Sarantis  announced that as per the AGM decision for a share split, in terms of 1 new common share for every 1 old common share, the distribution of 34,938,742 new shares to shareholders. The Company’s share capital remains to EUR 54.5m, divided into 69,877,484 shares of nominal value EUR 0.78 each (from EUR 1.56 previously). June 13, 2018 is set as the ex-date for the split. The commencement date for the trading of the new common registered shares is set for June 18, 2018. Note that this has no impact on valuation, but it could theoretically improve the stocks liquidity.

In a bourse filing,  OTE  announced the repurchase of 49,579 own shares for a total price of EUR 526.8m. Following the aforementioned purchase, OTE holds 3,207,720 own shares (i.e. 0.654% of its share capital).

MOH’s  AGM approved the distribution of gross DPS of EUR 1.30 for FY17  (given that an interim dividend of EUR 0.30 has been paid, the remaining DPS is EUR 1.0). The ex-dividend date was set on Tuesday, 26 June. The AGM also decided the early termination of the share buyback program approved one year ago. No share purchases had been effected since the beginning of that program.

According to  ATHEX statistics  for  May , total foreign investors recorded inflows of EUR 208m, with institutionals’ though recording outflows of EUR 58.3m (leading YtD inflows down to EUR 54.6m). Domestic financials recorded inflows of EUR 7m in May, lowering YtD figures to outflows of EUR 29.8m. The average daily value of transactions shaped higher MoM at EUR 81.1m in May from EUR 61.4m in April, though below last year’s EUR 101.2m (May-17). Accounting for total market cap, total foreign investor’s share dropped to 67.22% in May from 67.51% in April, with total market cap (ex HFSF) just 1.5% lower YoY.

The  ESM board  will decide on Friday whether Greece has met requirements for the approval of the pending EUR 1bn loan tranche of the third review. Note that the funds will be available until June 15, with the disbursement being subject to the repayment of state arrears in a specific period and the implementation of e-auctions in all of Greece’s regions (not only in Attica). According to press reports, although Greece appears to have missed the targets for state arrears clearance, country’s creditors will probably give the green light (the issue will discussed at today’s EWG) in order not to create problems ahead of country’s exit of the programme. 

The European Central Bank is increasingly confident that inflation is rising back to its target and will next week debate whether to gradually unwind bond purchases, ECB chief economist Peter Praet said on Wednesday.

ATHEX Group (EXAE)  will trade today ex-dividend of EUR 0.050208/share (net amount of EUR 0.0426768/share) for FY17. The payment of the dividend will commence on June 12, 2018. For the approval of the capital return of EUR 0.15/share, a r-AGM will take place on June 13, 2018.

Sarantis  announced 1Q18 trading results with sales up 6.2% YoY to EUR 69m, EBITDA up 12.9% YoY to EUR 6.9m and EBIT up 10.2% YoY to EUR 5.4m. The adoption of IFRS 15 resulted in the restatement of historic sales figures, reduced by the amount of ‘trade costs’ that were previously recorded under operating expenses. Adjusting our sales forecasts we see that reported figures were in line with our estimates for +6% YoY growth, though profitability came in better than the expected EBIT of EUR 4.9m.

According to the monthly survey of the Hellenic Foundation for Economic & Industrial Research (IOBE),  economic   sentiment  improved in May 2018, as the relevant index rose to 104.2 units compared to 103.6 a month ago (+0.6% m-o-m), hitting a 4-year high, on the back of better prospects in services and construction. On the flip side,  consumer confidence  showed some deterioration (the relevant index stood at -51.0 units in May vs. -48.8 a month ago) on the back of the imminent pensions cuts and additional tax obligations that will affect disposable income in the next 12 months.

Hellenic Statistical Authority  (ELSTAT) is scheduled to announce today provisional data for  1Q18 GDP . Recall that according to European Commission’s latest forecasts, Greek GDP is estimated to grow by 1.9% in 2018, while the IMF is slightly more optimistic projecting GDP growth rate of 2.0%. Finally, the government is expected to revise downwards its current GDP forecast of 2.5% (included in FY18 budget) during the submission of the midterm fiscal plan  for the 2019-2022 period.  

Sarantis  will release a trading statement today, with sales and EBIT figures for 1Q18. Our estimates call for sales growth of c. 6% YoY at EUR 78m, with sales from Greece estimated almost flat YoY (EUR 28m) and sales from other countries at +10% YoY (EUR 50m) including Indulona sales in Slovakia since January. We expect similar profit from Estee Lauder compared to a year ago. EBIT is estimated at last year’s level of EUR 4.9m, weighed by higher expected operating costs, as it was the first semester of Indulona inclusion, and also rising commodity prices. It is worth noting that the adoption of IFRS 15 is expected to change the reported top line and EBIT figures, as some expenses will be recognized as reducing items in revenues. Our forecasts and growth rates are on reported 1Q17 figures.

Titan’s AGM  approved on Friday the distribution of distribution of DPS of EUR 0.05 and return of capital of EUR 0.50 (ex-dividend on 25/6 and ex-capital return on 26/6). The AGM also decided to terminate the share buy-back programme that had been approved by the General Meeting dated 17.6.2016 and would expire on 17.6.2018.  During this period, the company bought back in total 1,758,156 own shares (1,601,474 common and 153,210 preference shares), corresponding to 2.08% of the company's share capital, at an average purchase price of EUR 20.08 per common share and EUR 14.10 per preference share, paying in total EUR  34.4m.

German Finance Minister  Scholz said that decisions on Greek debt would be taken at the end of June, adding that positive developments in Greece exceeded expectations, possibly implying that Greece will get less generous debt relief measures. Recall that senior officials said a couple of days ago that without a deal on debt by next Monday (note that last minute negotiations between the IMF and the Eurozone will take place during the weekend on the sidelines of the G7 meeting in Canada), the IMF would most likely not take part in the bailout programme at all.

FF Group  CEO affirmed its willingness to provide collaterals to Greek banks for the part of their loans that are not guaranteed. Same source mentions that Mr. Koutsolioutsos accepted to put as collateral to the company’s bank loans the equity participation in Dufry AG and Attica Department Stores. According to Kathimerini, the exposure of Greek banks to FF’s debt is EUR 50m, without taking into account any other credit lines or facilities.